President & Church History Professor of Westminster Theological Seminary
Arminius also gave faith a different place in his system from the role that faith had occupied in earlier Reformed theology. Arminius taught that faith itself was imputed to the sinner for righteousness, whereas the earlier teaching had stressed that it was the object of faith, namely Christ and His righteousness, that was imputed to the sinner.
This shift is important because again it shifts the primary focus of salvation from God's work in Christ to man's faith. Arminius can even speak of faith being the one work required of man in the New Covenant. This kind of teaching led to Gomarus' charge that Arminius was undermining the Protestant doctrine of justification by faith. Arminius' teaching turns faith from an instrument that rests on the work of Christ to a work of man, and tends to change faith from that which receives the righteousness of Christ to that which is righteousness itself.
The heart of this Remonstrance ( Arminiusim) summarized their theology in five points: conditional election, universal atonement, total depravity, sufficient but resistible grace and uncertainty about the perseverance of the saints.
The Calvinists answered with a Contra-Remonstrance in 1611. It it surely ironic that through the centuries there has been so much talk of the "five points of Calvinism" when in fact Calvinists did not originate a discussion of five points. Indeed Calvinism has never been summarized in five points. Calvinism has only offered five responses to the five errors of Arminianism.
William Ames, one of the great English Puritans, wrote that Arminianism "is not properly a heresy but a dangerous error in the faith tending to heresy...a Pelagian heresy, because it denies the effectual operation of internal grace to be necessary for the effecting of conversion and faith." In this evaluation Ames rightly saw the conflict between Calvinists and Arminians as related to the conflict between Augustine - the champion of grace - and Pelagius - who insisted that man's will was so free that it was possible for him to be saved solely through his own natural abilities.
The Synod rejected the teaching of the Arminians and in clear and helpful terms presented the orthodox Calvinist position in the Canons of Dort. Unanimously approved by the Synod, they were hailed throughout the Reformed churches of Europe as an excellent defense of the faith.
The Canons of Dort responded to the five errors of Arminianism and ezpressed the Calvinist alternative to those errors: 1) God freely and sovereignly determined to save some lost sinners through the righteousness of Christ and to give to His elect the gift of faith; 2) God sent His Son to die as the substitute for His elect and Christ's death will certainly result in the salvation of His own; 3) Man is so utterly lost in sin that without the regenerating grace of God, man cannot desire salvation, repent, believe or do anything truly pleasing to God; 4) God's grace saves the elect sinner irresistibly since only irresistible grace can overcome man's rebellion; 5) God in mercy preserves the gift of faith in His elect to ensure that the good work He began in them will certainly come to completion in their salvation.
Do the differences between Arminians and Calvinists matter today? Many argue that the differences between Calvinists and Arminians no longer matter. After all, some argue, Arminius lived 400 years ago. Are his views still important and influential? The answer to that question must be a resounding yes. Armininism is very influential in evangelical and Pentecostal circles today. Indeed Arminianism today usually goes much further in emphasizing free will than Arminius did or would ever have approved of doing.
Some downplay the differences betwen Arminians and Calvinists out of an activism that is rather indifferent to theology. Such activists often argue that, with so much to do for Christ in the world and with so much opposition to Christianity in general, theological differences must be minimized.
The differences between Calvinists and Arminians are important precisely for the work that all want to do for Christ. What is the work that needs to be done and how will it be done? The answers to those questions depend very much on whether man has a free will or not. Does one seek to entertain and move the emotions and will of men whose salvation is ultimately in their own hands? Or does one present the claims of God as clearly as possible while recognizing that ultimately fruit comes only from the Holy Spirit? Those kinds of concerns will affect the ways in which Christians worship and witness and serve and live.
Some argue that the differences between Calvinism and Arminianism are unimportant because the theological terms of the controversy were wrong or are now outmoded. They argue that just as progress has been made in so many fields, so theological progress has transcended the old controversies. This claim may be an attractive one until it is examined closely. On close examination such a claim proves to be false. Either salvation is entirely the work of God or it is partially the work of man. There is no way to "transcend" this reality. On close examination those efforts to transcend Calvinism are at best other forms of Arminianism.
The depths of God's grace should lead Christians to live gratefully, humbly, joyfully and carefully before God.It needs to recover a forceful and faithful commitment to the God-centered biblical message.
Once again I must present this prerequisite given by Jesus Christ himself in his word for salvation. Sola scriptura. It is not enough to believe in God and it is not enough to be sorry for ones sins, now that is part of the process but it does not constitute salvation. No matter what anecdotal story, that may sound touching to ones emotions has to say, Gods word is the standard for salvation. Much of the so called Christian church today are basically only really humanitarians that have been intellectually converted to the gospel or to a false gospel that does not coinside with scripture. They are not real Christians in the true sence of the word.
A true Christan is one who has had the born again experience. Without the regenerational process that is miraculously worked within your spirit by the holy Spirit, due to the atonement provided at Calvary by the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ, one cannot become a real child of God. John calls it to be BORN OF GOD, conceived by a new birth where the spirit of man is transformed into the new creation.
How does this happen? By a sovereign work of God called election. God the father calls and chooses who he has ordained for eternal life and reveals himself by his word to that soul who through the impartation of the gift of saving faith becomes quicked and made alive by the power of the holy Spirit, unto God.
John 1: 12,13
But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name. Which were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God
An intellectual conversion to the gospel is not salvation according to scripture. Nor is sorrow for sin. True repentance is a gift that turns one into a disciple of Jesus Christ.
Just where are we headed in this one world global identity? Let us take a look at what the mindset of the world is concerning this. Remember that for something to be implemented it must first be formulated in the minds of men. Hitler came to power only after the world was propagated with anti-Semitic hatred. He walked into an already ripe environment for him.
The Global Oneness Commitment Co-creating a happy world
Co-creating a happy world
The Global Oneness Commitment is an eight-year project with the goal of uniting people around the globe to mutual actions in order to not only save what we have, but to transform the planet thru an increase in spiritual awareness ? a new consciousness creating a joyful home for all its inhabitants and sincere respect for all forms of life.
The project is synchronised with the twin Venus Transits of 2004 and 2012. It starts with the first Venus transit of June 8th 2004 and ends with the second Transit June 6th 2012.
The world is not in need of a new religion or a new philosophy but in need of spiritual rejuvenation. All knowledge and wisdom needed to bring the world into a new era of inner and outer prosperity is already here and have been since ancient times. Lets face the fact that we are all dependent on each other and that we all has an individual responsibility for the well being of all life on the planet. We are all one and if one part of humanity is suffering ? the whole humanity will be reached by its consequences. This is not anything new. It has been known in ancient spiritual traditions all over our planet. By entering this well of wisdom we will see that we have always had much more uniting us than dividing us. The main objectives are to:
Co-create a vision of oneness, encouraging individuals, networks and organizations in their work for a happy world. Support the preservation and restoration of ancient spiritual wisdoms and sciences residing in all cultures around the world. Support all sorts of initiatives that unite people in mutual actions and projects aiming at creating global oneness.
Just where are we headed in this one world global identity? Let us take a look at what the mindset of the world is concerning this. Remember that for something to be implemented it must first be formulated in the minds of men. Hitler came to power only after the world was propagated with anti-Semitic hatred. He walked into an already ripe environment for him.
The Global Oneness Commitment Co-creating a happy world
At this time in our planet's history a tremendous transformation is taking place. In almost every arena of our global society -- the environment, our political structures, the distribution of wealth, access to food, water and health care -- we are confronted with unmistakable signs that our current way of life is no longer sustainable.
We hear words like "global consciousness", "paradigm shift", "sustainability", "world citizenship" and "social and economic justice" in response to the present planetary crisis and the need to protect life on earth for future generations, but what exactly do they describe? What is at the heart of that wisdom we all desire that would inspire us how to safeguard a healthy future for our great-grandchildren and our precious planet Earth?
We understand the answer to these questions to be what we call "oneness," that is, the fact that all life is interconnected, and that everything affects everything else. Modern global realities have made this inescapably clear -- we are no longer separate from one another. We feel that this mindset offers the vast and transformative possibility of a radically new way of being, thinking and acting in which we experience ourselves as intimately connected with the rest of the world.
The Global Oneness Project, Kalliopeia was created to discover and document the diverse ways in which the emerging consciousness of oneness is impacting people's lives. We are traveling worldwide with a small camera crew, asking people from a variety of disciplines whose work is grounded in a perspective of oneness for their stories and insights.
Just where are we headed in this one world global identity? Let us take a look at what the mindset of the world is concerning this. Remember that for something to be implemented it must first be formulated in the minds of men. Hitler came to power only after the world was propagated with anti-Semitic hatred. He walked into an already ripe environment for him.
The Global Oneness Commitment Co-creating a happy world
The Global Oneness Commitment is an eight-year project with the goal of uniting people around the globe to mutual actions in order to not only save what we have, but to transform the planet thru an increase in spiritual awareness ? a new consciousness creating a joyful home for all its inhabitants and sincere respect for all forms of life.
The project is synchronised with the twin Venus Transits of 2004 and 2012. It starts with the first Venus transit of June 8th 2004 and ends with the second Transit June 6th 2012.
The world is not in need of a new religion or a new philosophy but in need of spiritual rejuvenation. All knowledge and wisdom needed to bring the world into a new era of inner and outer prosperity is already here and have been since ancient times. Lets face the fact that we are all dependent on each other and that we all has an individual responsibility for the well being of all life on the planet. We are all one and if one part of humanity is suffering ? the whole humanity will be reached by its consequences. This is not anything new. It has been known in ancient spiritual traditions all over our planet. By entering this well of wisdom we will see that we have always had much more uniting us than dividing us. The main objectives are to:
Co-create a vision of oneness, encouraging individuals, networks and organizations in their work for a happy world. Support the preservation and restoration of ancient spiritual wisdoms and sciences residing in all cultures around the world. Support all sorts of initiatives that unite people in mutual actions and projects aiming at creating global oneness.
pastor, and international prophecy teacher. In 1986 Baxter authored A Message for the President, in which he identified the United States, Great Britain, Russia, and other modern nations in the Bible. He also said that the Berlin Wall would be torn down, Germany would be reunited, and that these events would be the catalyst which would inaugurate a permanent New World Order
In Daniel 7:1-8, the prophet Daniel was given a vision of four beasts. The prophecy states that these beasts symbolize nations (verse 23). By studying the context of the prophecy, we can prove that all of the prophesied nations will exist together at the time of the return of Jesus Christ to the earth.
If we can prove that these nations exist on earth right now, then we can know that we are living in the era of the Second Coming.
Who are the nations?
When God chose symbols to represent nations, He did not pick them indiscriminately. Instead He chose symbols that would have meaning at the time of the prophetic fulfillment. There are prominent nations on earth right now whose official symbols are those contained in the Daniel 7 prophecy.
The lion
The Bible states that the first beast was like a lion. There is, in fact, a major nation on earth right now whose recognized national symbol is the lion. The editorial page of the January 4, 1980, edition of the Indianapolis Star featured the headline, "After the British Lion, the Russian Bear." In Webster's Third International Dictionary under lion, it states, "the symbol of a country--Great Britain."
The bear
The second beast in the prophecy was like a bear. It is widely known that the national symbol of Russia is the bear. The bear was used to symbolize Russia on the front cover of Time magazine on May 21, 1984, and on October 27, 1980. USA Today used a bear to symbolize Russia on its front page on September 9, 1988. The January 25, 1997, edition of the Economist magazine used a huge bear to represent Russia. We could give literally hundreds of examples of the bear being used in many different publications to depict Russia.
The eagle
One of the most incredible things about this prophecy is its depiction of the United States. The lion had eagle's wings. The official emblem of the United States is the eagle. Where did the United States come from? We grew out of our mother country of Great Britain, of course! And that's not all. Daniel watched as the eagle's wings were broken off from the lion. Amazingly, in 600 BC, Daniel foresaw the U.S. Declaration of Independence that would occur twenty-three hundred years later in 1776 AD! In 600 BC, the prophecy of Daniel 7 accurately prophesied three of the most prominent nations of our times. The accuracy of this portrayal of modern nations 2,600 years ago is absolutely astounding! If this happens to be coincidence, it is one of the most incredible coincidences of all history!
The leopard
The prophecy tells us that "dominion was given to the leopard." Which nation has had dominion in this modern era? One nation has started the last three major wars. The Franco-German War of 1870, World War I and World War II were all planned, plotted and started by the same nation-Germany Furthermore, Germany's Leopard Tank is the dominant tank of both Europe and NATO. The leopard in this prophecy had four heads. All of the other beasts had only one head each. A beast in Bible prophecy always represents a kingdom or nation. Multiple heads on a beast symbolize the number of times that nation will rise and fall. The four heads of the leopard represent the First Reich, the Second Reich, Hitler's famous Third Reich, and the Fourth Reich, which is now rising. American author Edwin Hartrich has written a book entitled, The Fourth and Richest Reich.
The ten-horned beast
The last beast portrayed in Daniel 7 was different from the other beasts in the prophecy. It was so different that Daniel could not compare it to any animal he had ever seen. However, the dominant characteristic of the last beast was that it had ten horns.
In verse 24, we are told that the ten horns represent ten kings that will be joined together into one kingdom. This ten-horned kingdom will become so powerful that it will ultimately devour the whole earth. This refers to the often-prophesied fact that, immediately before the Second Coming of Jesus Christ to earth, a one-world government will gain control of the world for a very short time.
A very skilled and popular politician will rise up among the ten rulers of these ten nations, and they will voluntarily give their power to him. This powerful politician will be the endtime ruler that the Bible refers to as the beast, or the Antichrist.
It is not clear at this time who this ten-nation union will be. The two most likely possibilities are the European Union or a re-created Soviet Union. The European Union presently has 15 members. Therefore, its number would have to be reduced to ten if it is to fulfill the prophecy. Many of the states of the ex-Soviet Union do not like being relegated to third-rate power status. Many of them would like to see the re-creation of the Soviet Union. If ten of these states came together, they would have all the nuclear weaponry of the former Soviet Union. This likelihood cannot be ignored since the Bible, in Ezekiel 38, explicitly prophesies that Russia will be the dominant force coming against Israel at the Battle of Armageddon. According to the prophecies, the Antichrist will lead the international forces of the World Community against Israel at Armageddon. So if the Antichrist would come to power at the head of a union dominated by Russia, the prophecies would be fulfilled perfectly.
Think of it! Two-thousand six-hundred years ago, Almighty God stated that Great Britain, Russia, the United States and Germany would be the prominent nations on earth at the time of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. Ultimate destiny of the U.S
In the book of Revelation, chapter 13, another prophecy is given using the exact same symbols used 700 years before by Daniel. This prophecy depicts one beast with the body of the leopard, the feet of the bear, the mouth of the lion and the ten horns of the ten-horned kingdom. This prophecy foretells the creation of the one-world government that we presently see emerging under the guise of the International Community. It specifically prophesies that Germany, Great Britain, Russia and the ten-horned union will come together to dominate the world and to eventually be dominated by the coming Antichrist.
The interesting thing is that the eagle's wings representing the United States do not appear in this prophecy depicting the New World Order. The Bible is not specifically clear on what actually happens to the U.S. during these prophesied endtimes. It is possible that the United States has been wiped out or greatly diminished by an armed conflict. It is also possible that the U.S. is included under the lion out of which we originally came. Or perhaps our leaders will see the dangers of the New World Order and will withdraw from it, allowing the center of power of the New World Order to swing to Europe. There is only one possible indication concerning the role of the U.S. in the culmination of endtime events. Revelation 12:14 depicts modern Israel as a woman. This woman will come under great persecution during a three and one-half year period immediately before the Battle of Armageddon. When she does, the prophecy states that there will be given to her two wings of a great eagle, that she might fly into the wilderness, into her place where she will be protected for three and one-half years. This prophecy may very well refer to the support for the nation of Israel that has been and will be given to her by the United States of America. It certainly indicates where the loyalties of the U.S. should be placed in these pivotal times. What should America do?
Prophecy is clear that the United Nations will invade Israel at the time of the Battle of Armageddon. It is absolutely imperative that the United States not participate in this invasion! Zechariah 14 tells us that Almighty God will personally appear to fight for the overmatched nation of Israel at that time.
All of the nations that participate in the action against Israel will be smitten with a special plague according to Zechariah 14:12, "And this shall be the plague wherewith the LORD will smite all the people that have fought against Jerusalem; Their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their holes, and their tongue shall consume away in their month."
This is obviously a prophecy describing the effects of nuclear radiation. Apparently nuclear weapons will be used against the forces of the International Community at Armageddon.
The book of Daniel gives the details on the four world kingdoms of the Gentiles from the time of Daniel until the time that God sets up His kingdom on earth. The four kingdoms are:
Babylonian empire under Nebuchadnezzar
The Medo-Persian empire
Macedonian empire under Alexander The Great
The Roman Empire
The history of the world has taken place exactly as was told in the book of Daniel. A study of Daniel is essential to understand the world end time scenario. There are many good books written on the prophecies in Daniel e.g. "Handwriting on the Wall", by David Jeremiah or "The End of the Days", by Bloomfield. The first three kingdoms listed above were each defeated by its successor. The Roman empire was the last and terrible beast in Daniel's vision but it was never defeated and its wreckage remains at that same location.
There have been several unsuccessful attempts to reform this empire with the last (until today's European Union) being the unsuccessful attempt under the reign of Hitler. A study of Daniel makes it clear to the astute that there will be a future revival of this Roman empire in the area of Europe and some of the Middle East. This revived Roman empire is portrayed in Daniel as the ten toes on the great image that was in Nebuchadnezzar's vision.
The Rise of Europe and the new Roman Empire in this generation Many, even in the church, have said it is impossible to ever unite Europe and they have mocked those who said that this prophetic scenario should be taken literally. However, in spite of those who insist on allegorizing prophecy we see a super state called the European Union forming in Europe to set the stage for the fulfillment of Old Testament and Revelation prophecies.
At the exact same time Israel has become a nation again to fulfill her end time prophetic role and many say this is meaningless as well. The blinded in Christianity and the world also see no significance to the creation of the UN, the rise of Islam and their own membership in the World Council of Churches. Nevertheless all these entities were born during this same period to fulfill their unique end time biblical role.
The socialist elite of Europe have made plans to have a united Europe under a centralized government. They already have implemented a common European military and currency. They may soon have central government power without sufficient checks and balances to keep it democratic. The number of nations that belong to the European Union are now 27 nations and others want to be admitted. What is not being told is that there are only ten full charter members of the European Union. The ten known as old Europe (possibly the ten horns mentioned in Daniel). The other states are associate members at best.
The constitution of this European Union has been accepted by the leadership of the states but is being rejected by the people. However, like most politicians they will find new ways to implement their agenda. Their goal is to achieve a centralized socialist federal government that will supersede much of the law of the individual member states.
The EU may soon be the largest economy in the world and the most powerful political entity on earth. That of course is their goal but when things fall apart, as it will with 27 or more separate nations uniting on the whim of socialist idealism, be sure a strong man will come to power to enforce the central government decrees. When this happens democracy will be nothing but an illusion in Europe. There will be no easy exit from the European Union once a state becomes a member.
The new Holy Roman Empire
The ground work for the new Holy Roman Empire is being put in place but I believe there will be much difficulty in keeping it all together until a demonically inspired man appears on the scene with solutions to the inevitable problems. I believe it will not be called a Holy Roman Empire until after Europe has a war against the forces of fundamental Islam.
The final form of the revived Roman Empire may take place after the time of the disappearance of a large number of evangelical Christians (in the rapture) and the intervention of Jehovah for Israel against the Northern invasion (described in Ezekiel). Russia will side with Moslem nations mentioned in Ezekiel and attempt to invade the land of Israel. The intervention of God against the Northern invaders will be a witness to the whole world that there is a God in heaven.
Note..the author believes in Pre- tribualtion rapture but this is not conclusive as the rapture may occur after the war of Gog and Magog. Personally I believe that according to scripture the rapture will occur only after anti christ is revealed. 2 Thess 2:3-4 Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition Who opposeth and exalteth himself above all that is called God, or that is worshipped; so that he as God sitteth in the temple of God, shewing himself that he is God
This great religious awakening will be the foundation for a universal world church but she will be a harlot because she will commit fornication with demonic religions for the sake of religious unity. With the help of this "world church" a satanic man will take the remains of the basic structure of the European Union and reform it into the new Holy Roman Empire. This empire will be dominated by 10 nation states and later the world will probably be divided into 10 regional zones (the Club of Rome think tank has presented just such a plan for the world). This regional or world government will be integrated with the emerging world church that will be head quartered at the Vatican in Rome. A prophetic picture of this merger is given in the book of Revelation where the Woman (the harlot world church) rides the Beast (the revived Roman empire).
The new Roman Empire and the leader that will arise will confirm and enforce a seven-year peace covenant with Israel and her Moslem neighbors. In the middle of this seven-year period the man of sin (the Beast/Antichrist) will enter the rebuilt third Jewish temple, claim to be God and break the covenant with Israel. A false prophet will then appear with great signs and wonders and deception. His deceptive lies will give worldwide power to this man known as the Beast Antichrist in Bible prophecy. This man of sin is likely at some point to move the world government headquarters from Rome to Babylon and thus fulfill the remaining prophecies in scripture about the city of Babylon.
The Beast Antichrist and his false prophet will at that time claim that Jesus/Jehovah is a lesser deity and he will spearhead a worldwide counter revolution against the harlot world church. He will hate her because even in her harlotry she will refuse to worship the man of sin as God, and many in the end will not reject Jesus Christ as the only begotten Son of God. This will begin the time of persecution spoken of in Revelation and Daniel for all followers of Jesus/Jehovah who dwell on the earth. In this time of their fiery trial, many will turn from their harlotry and find salvation.
Those who will not receive the truth to be saved will believe the lie and will follow the man of sin to war against Jerusalem and Jesus when He returns. Because they loved a lie and would not receive God's mercy in Jesus they will receive His wrath at His coming.
Signs of the time The stage is being set for the new Holy Roman Empire with the modern day rise of Europe:
The Euro is now the official European currency and it will be primarily an electronic currency where the privilege to buy or sell will be granted by the state. It is likely that the Euro will soon replace the U.S. dollar as the primary world currency.
Computer systems in Brussels have the capability to manage all the world's finances and government complexes have been built in Europe to house a large central government. European leaders such as France's Prime Minister Lionel Jospin have already called for a European state of nations with common economics, taxes, police force and constitution. Those who oppose a centralized European government will be marginalized.
A European constitution has been accepted by the leadership and they now will continue to sell it or modify it until the people in each state ratify it. There is now more and more clamor about the need for a strong president of the central government who will speak for all of Europe.
Germany is now in a position to take the lead. Still other states hope to join with the EU The European super state certainly is evolving in this generation and it is very likely that this same generation will see the prophecies of Daniel and Revelation fulfilled with the rising of a new Holy Roman Empire.
It is not enough to believe in Jesus Christ as the bible says that even the devil believes in God and he is not saved.
It is not enough to know about Jesus Christ and read your bible and go to church.
It is not enough to confess your sins to a priest or your pastor.
It is not enough to be a good moral person and help others.
It is not enough to be nice to people and sing praises to God.
So what is a christian?
The bible says that a Christian is a person who has had a born again experience.
What is that you ask? A born again person is one chosen by God, who has had a revelation by the holy Spirit of the atonement provided at Calvary through Jesus Christ, has had a supernatural transformation into a new creature in Christ Jesus by the power of the holy Spirit through faith imparted to that person to believe and trust in Jesus Christ solely for salvation. The person by Gods supernatural power becomes repentant and converted to Jesus Christ. This experience cannot be initiated by self.It is divinely imparted by the Father to his elect. The gospel must be preached for faith to be released so that God, who gives the increase, may save those he has ordained for eternal life.
This is the gospel according to the bible,the word of God and not the doctrines of men
John 3:3-8
Jesus answered and said unto him, Verily, verily, I say unto thee, Except a man be born again, he cannot see the kingdom of God. Nicodemus saith unto him, How can a man be born when he is old? can he enter the second time into his mother's womb, and be born? Jesus answered, Verily, verily, I say unto thee, Except a man be born of water and of the Spirit, he cannot enter into the kingdom of God. That which is born of the flesh is flesh; and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit. Marvel not that I said unto thee, Ye must be born again. The wind bloweth where it listeth, and thou hearest the sound thereof, but canst not tell whence it cometh, and whither it goeth: so is every one that is born of the Spirit.
2 Corinthians 5:17
Therefore if any man be in Christ, he is a new creature: old things are passed away; behold, all things are become new
James 2:19
Thou believest that there is one God; thou doest well: the devils also believe, and tremble
Acts 8:13-24
Then Simon himself believed also and when he was baptized, he continued with Philip, and wondered, beholding the miracles and signs which were done. and when Simon saw that through laying on of the apostles' hands the Holy Ghost was given, he offered them money, Saying, Give me also this power, that on whomsoever I lay hands, he may receive the Holy Ghost. But Peter said unto him, Thy money perish with thee, because thou hast thought that the gift of God may be purchased with money. Thou hast neither part nor lot in this matter: for thy heart is not right in the sight of God. Repent therefore of this thy wickedness, and pray God, if perhaps the thought of thine heart may be forgiven thee. For I perceive that thou art in the gall of bitterness, and in the bond of iniquity. Then answered Simon, and said, Pray ye to the LORD for me, that none of these things which ye have spoken come upon me
Titus 3:5
Not by works of righteousness which we have done, but according to his mercy he saved us, by the washing of regeneration, and renewing of the Holy Ghost; 6 Which he shed on us abundantly through Jesus Christ our Saviour; 7 That being justified by his grace, we should be made heirs according to the hope of eternal life
Ephesians 2:8,9
For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: [it is] the gift of God. Not of works, lest any man should boast
John 15:16
Ye have not chosen me, but I have chosen you, and ordained you, that ye should go and bring forth fruit, and that your fruit should remain: that whatsoever ye shall ask of the Father in my name, he may give it you
John 6:44
No man can come to me, except the Father which hath sent me draw him: and I will raise him up at the last day
Acts 13: 48
And when the Gentiles heard this, they were glad, and glorified the word of the Lord: and as many as were ordained to eternal life believed
William Clark Centre for Research on Globalisation
The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse.
In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market
"Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare."
- James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
Madison’s words of wisdom should be carefully considered by the American people and world community. The rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground in Iraq portends an even direr situation for American soldiers and the People of the world community - should the Bush administration pursue their strategy regarding Iran. Current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran extend beyond the publicly stated concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions, and likely include a proposed Iranian "petroeuro system" for oil trade. Similar to the Iraq war, upcoming operations against Iran relate to the macroeconomics of the `petrodollar recycling’ and the unpublicized but real challenge to U.S. dollar supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency.
It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat from Saddam’s long-gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining control over Iraq’s hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so maintaining the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market.
Throughout 2004 statements by former administration insiders revealed that the Bush/Cheney administration entered into office with the intention of toppling Saddam Hussein. Indeed, the neoconservative strategy of installing a pro-U.S. government in Baghdad along with multiple U.S. military bases was partly designed to thwart further momentum within OPEC towards a "petroeuro." However, subsequent events show this strategy to be fundamentally flawed, with Iran moving forward towards a petroeuro system for international oil trades, while Russia discusses this option.
Candidly stated, ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ was a war designed to install a pro-U.S. puppet in Iraq, establish multiple U.S military bases before the onset of Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. [1] In 2003 the global community witnessed a combination of petrodollar warfare and oil depletion warfare. The majority of the world’s governments – especially the E.U., Russia and China - were not amused – and neither are the U.S. soldiers who are currently stationed in Iraq.
Indeed, the author’s original pre-war hypothesis was validated shortly after the war in a Financial Times article dated June 5th, 2003, which confirmed Iraqi oil sales returning to the international markets were once again denominated in US dollars, not euros. Not surprisingly, this detail was never mentioned in the five US major media conglomerates who appear to censor this type of information, but confirmation of this vital fact provides insight into one of the crucial - yet overlooked - rationales for 2003 the Iraq war.
"The tender, for which bids are due by June 10, switches the transaction back to dollars -- the international currency of oil sales - despite the greenback's recent fall in value. Saddam Hussein in 2000 insisted Iraq's oil be sold for euros, a political move, but one that improved Iraq's recent earnings thanks to the rise in the value of the euro against the dollar." [2]
Unfortunately, it has become clear that yet another manufactured war, or some type of ill-advised covert operation is inevitable under President George W. Bush, should he win the 2004 Presidential Election. Numerous news reports over the past several months have revealed that the neoconservatives are quietly - but actively - planning for the second petrodollar war, this time against Iran.
"Deep in the Pentagon, admirals and generals are updating plans for possible U.S. military action in Syria and Iran. The Defense Department unit responsible for military planning for the two troublesome countries is "busier than ever," an administration official says. Some Bush advisers characterize the work as merely an effort to revise routine plans the Pentagon maintains for all contingencies in light of the Iraq war. More skittish bureaucrats say the updates are accompanied by a revived campaign by administration conservatives and neocons for more hard-line U.S. policies toward the countries"…"Even hard-liners acknowledge that given the U.S. military commitment in Iraq, a U.S. attack on either country would be an unlikely last resort; covert action of some kind is the favored route for Washington hard-liners who want regime change in Damascus and Tehran."
"…administration hawks are pinning their hopes on regime change in Tehran - by covert means, preferably, but by force of arms if necessary. Papers on the idea have circulated inside the administration, mostly labeled "draft" or "working draft" to evade congressional subpoena powers and the Freedom of Information Act. Informed sources say the memos echo the administration's abortive Iraq strategy: oust the existing regime, swiftly install a pro-U.S. government in its place (extracting the new regime's promise to renounce any nuclear ambitions) and get out. This daredevil scheme horrifies U.S. military leaders, and there's no evidence that it has won any backers at the cabinet level." [3]
To date, one of the more difficult technical obstacles concerning a euro-based oil transaction trading system is the lack of a euro-denominated oil pricing standard, or oil ‘marker’ as it is referred to in the industry. The three current oil markers are U.S. dollar denominated, which include the West Texas
Intermediate crude (WT, Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. However, since the spring of 2003, Iran has required payments in the euro currency for its European and Asian/ACU exports - although the oil pricing for trades are still denominated in the dollar. [4]
Therefore, a potentially significant news development was reported in June 2004 announcing Iran’s intentions to create of an Iranian oil Bourse. (The word "bourse" refers to a stock exchange for securities trading, and is derived from the French stock exchange in Paris, the Federation Internationale des Bourses de Valeurs.) This announcement portended competition would arise between the Iranian oil bourse and London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), as well as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). It should be noted that both the IPE and NYMEX are owned by U.S. corporations.
The macroeconomic implications of a successful Iranian Bourse are noteworthy. Considering that Iran has switched to the euro for its oil payments from E.U. and ACU customers, it would be logical to assume the proposed Iranian Bourse will usher in a fourth crude oil marker – denominated in the euro currency. Such a development would remove the main technical obstacle for a broad-based petroeuro system for international oil trades. From a purely economic and monetary perspective, a petroeuro system is a logical development given that the European Union imports more oil from OPEC producers than does the U.S., and the E.U. accounts for 45% of imports into the Middle East (2002 data).
Acknowledging that many of the oil contracts for Iran and Saudi Arabia are linked to the United Kingdom’s Brent crude marker, the Iranian bourse could create a significant shift in the flow of international commerce into the Middle East. If Iran’s bourse becomes a successful alternative for oil trades, it would challenge the hegemony currently enjoyed by the financial centers in both London (IPE) and New York (NYMEX), a factor not overlooked in the following article:
"Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and OPEC producers that could threaten the supremacy of London's International Petroleum Exchange."
"…He [Mr. Asemipour] played down the dangers that the new exchange could eventually pose for the IPE or Nymex, saying he hoped they might be able to cooperate in some way."
"…Some industry experts have warned the Iranians and other OPEC producers that western exchanges are controlled by big financial and oil corporations, which have a vested interest in market volatility.
The IPE, bought in 2001 by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, was unwilling to discuss the Iranian move yesterday. "We would not have any comment to make on it at this stage," said an IPE spokeswoman. "[5]
It is unclear at the time of writing, if this project will be successful, or could it prompt overt or covert U.S. interventions - thereby signaling the second phase of petrodollar warfare in the Middle East. News articles in June 2004 revealed the discredited neoconservative sycophant Ahmed Chalabi may have revealed his knowledge to Iran regarding U.S. military planning for operations against that nation.
"The reason for the US breakup with Ahmed Chalabi, the Shiite Iraqi politician, could be his leak of Pentagon plans to invade Iran before Christmas 2005, but the American government has not changed its objective, and the attack could happen earlier if president George W. Bush is re-elected, or later if John Kerry is sworn in."
"….Diplomats said Chalabi was alerted to the Pentagon plans and in the process of trying to learn more to tell the Iranians, he invited suspicions of US officials, who subsequently got the Iraqi police to raid the compound of his Iraqi National Congress on 20 May 2004, leading to a final break up of relations."
"While the US is uncertain how much of the attack plans were leaked to Iran, it could change some of the invasion tactics, but the broad parameters would be kept intact." [6]
Regardless of the potential U.S. response to an Iranian petroeuro system, the emergence of an oil exchange market in the Middle East is not entirely surprising given the domestic peaking and decline of oil exports in the U.S. and U.K, in comparison to the remaining oil reserves in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. According to Mohammad Javad Asemipour, an advisor to Iran’s oil ministry and the individual responsible for this project, this new oil exchange is scheduled to begin oil trading in March 2005.
"Asemipour said the platform should be trading crude, natural gas and petrochemicals by the start of the new Iranian year, which falls on March 21, 2005.
He said other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - Iran is the producer group's second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia - as well as oil producers from the Caspian region would eventually participate in the exchange." [7]
(Note: the most recent Iranian news report from October 5, 2004 stated: "Iran's oil bourse will start trading by early 2006" which suggests a delay from the original March 21, 2005 target date). [8] Additionally, according to the following report, Saudi investors may be interested in participating in the Iranian oil exchange market, further illustrating why petrodollar hegemony is becoming unsustainable.
"Chris Cook, who previously worked for the IPE and now offers consultancy services to markets through Partnerships Consulting LLP in London, commented: "Post-9/11, there has also been an interest in the project from the Saudis, who weren't interested in participating before."
"Others familiar with Iran's economy said since 9/11, Saudi Arabian investors are opting to invest in Iran rather than traditional western markets as the kingdom's relations with the U.S. have weakened Iran's oil ministry has made no secret of its eagerness to attract much needed foreign investment in its energy sector and broaden its choice of oil buyers."
"…Along with several other members of OPEC, Iranian oil officials believe crude trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the IPE is controlled by the oil majors and big financial companies, who benefit from market volatility."[9]
One of the Federal Reserve’s nightmares may begin to unfold in 2005 or 2006, when it appears international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $50 dollars on the NYMEX and IPE - or purchase a barrel of oil for €37 - €40 euros via the Iranian Bourse. This assumes the euro maintains its current 20-25% appreciated value relative to the dollar - and assumes that some sort of "intervention" is not undertaken against Iran. The upcoming bourse will introduce petrodollar versus petroeuro currency hedging, and fundamentally new dynamics to the biggest market in the world - global oil and gas trades
During an important speech in April 2002, Mr. Javad Yarjani, an OPEC executive, described three pivotal events that would facilitate an OPEC transition to euros. [10] He stated this would be based on (1) if and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros, (2) if and when the U.K. adopts the euro, and (3) whether or not the euro gains parity valuation relative to the dollar, and the EU’s proposed expansion plans were successful. (Note: Both of the later two criteria have transpired: the euro’s valuation has been above the dollar since late 2002, and the euro-based E.U. enlarged in May 2004 from 12 to 22 countries). In the meantime, the United Kingdom remains uncomfortably juxtaposed between the financial interests of the U.S. banking nexus (New York/Washington) and the E.U. financial centers (Paris/Frankfurt).
The implementation of the proposed Iranian oil Bourse (exchange) in 2005/2006 – if successful in utilizing the euro as its oil transaction currency standard – essentially negates the necessity of the previous two criteria as described by Mr. Yarjani regarding the solidification of a "petroeuro" system for international oil trades. [10] It should also be noted that during 2003-2004 Russia and China have both increased their central bank holdings of the euro currency, which appears to be a coordinated move to facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the euro as a second World Reserve currency. [11] [12] In the meantime, the United Kingdom is uncomfortable juxtaposed between the financial interests of the U.S. (New York/Washington) banking nexus and that of the E.U. financial center (Paris/Frankfurt).
The immediate question for Americans? Will the neoconservatives attempt to intervene covertly and/or overtly in Iran during 2005 in an effort to prevent the formation of a euro-denominated crude oil pricing mechanism? Commentators in India are quite correct in their assessment that a U.S. intervention in Iran is likely to prove disastrous for the United States, making matters much worse regarding international terrorism, not to the mention potential effects on the U.S. economy.
"The giving up on the terror war while Iran invasion plans are drawn up makes no sense, especially since the previous invasion and current occupation of Iraq has further fuelled Al-Qaeda terrorism after 9/11."
"…It is obvious that sucked into Iraq, the US has limited military manpower left to combat the Al-Qaeda elsewhere in the Middle East and South Central Asia,"…"and NATO is so seriously cross with America that it hesitates to provides troops in Iraq, and no other country is willing to bail out America outside its immediate allies like Britain, Italy, Australia and Japan."
"….If it [U.S.] intervenes again, it is absolutely certain it will not be able to improve the situation – Iraq shows America has not the depth or patience to create a new civil society – and will only make matters worse."
"There is a better way, as the constructive engagement of Libya’s Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has shown…."Iran is obviously a more complex case than Libya, because power resides in the clergy, and Iran has not been entirely transparent about its nuclear programme, but the sensible way is to take it gently, and nudge it to moderation. Regime change will only worsen global Islamist terror, and in any case, Saudi Arabia is a fitter case for democratic intervention, if at all." [13]
It is abundantly clear that a 2nd Bush term will bring a confrontation and possible war with Iran during 2005. Colin Powell as the Secretary of the State, has moderated neoconservative military designs regarding Iran, but Powell has stated that he will be leaving at the end of Bush’s first term. Of course if John Kerry wins in November, he might pursue a similar military strategy. However, it is my opinion that Kerry is more likely to pursue multilateral negotiations regarding the Iranian issues.
Clearly, there are numerous risks regarding neoconservative strategy towards Iran. First, unlike Iraq, Iran has a robust military capability. Secondly, a repeat of any "Shock and Awe" tactics is not advisable given that Iran has installed sophisticated anti-ship missiles on the Island of Abu Musa, and therefore controls the critical Strait of Hormuz. [14] In the case of a U.S. attack, a shut down of the Strait of Hormuz – where all of the Persian Gulf bound oil tankers must pass – could easily trigger a market panic with oil prices skyrocketing to $100 per barrel or more. World oil production is now flat out, and a major interruption would escalate oil prices to a level that would set off a global Depression. Why are the neoconservatives willing to takes such risks? Simply stated - their goal is U.S. global domination.
A successful Iranian bourse would solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency. Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S. economic dislocations. Multilateral compromise with the EU and OPEC regarding oil currency is certainly preferable to an ‘Operation Iranian Freedom,’ or perhaps an attempted CIA-sponsored repeat of the 1953 Iranian coup – operation "Ajax" part II. [15] Indeed, there are very good reasons for U.S. military leaders to be "horrified" at the thought of a second Bush term in which Cheney and the neoconservatives would be unrestrained in their tragic pursuit of U.S. global domination.
"NEWSWEEK has learned that the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. No one liked the outcome. As an Air Force source tells it, "The war games were unsuccessful at preventing the conflict from escalating." [16]
Despite the impressive power of the U.S. military and the ability of our intelligence agencies to facilitate "interventions," it would be perilous and possibly ruinous for the U.S to intervene in Iran given the dire situation in Iraq. The Monterey Institute of International Studies provided an extensive analysis of the possible consequences of a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and warned of the following:
"Considering the extensive financial and national policy investment Iran has committed to its nuclear projects, it is almost certain that an attack by Israel or the United States would result in immediate retaliation. A likely scenario includes an immediate Iranian missile counterattack on Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, followed by a very serious effort to destabilize Iraq and foment all-out confrontation between the United States and Iraq's Shi'i majority. Iran could also opt to destabilize Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with a significant Shi'i population, and induce Lebanese Hizbullah to launch a series of rocket attacks on Northern Israel."
"…An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities…could have various adverse effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East and the world. Most important, in the absence of evidence of an Iranian illegal nuclear program, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by the U.S. or Israel would be likely to strengthen Iran's international stature and reduce the threat of international sanctions against Iran. Such an event is more likely to embolden and expand Iran's nuclear aspirations and capabilities in the long term"…"one thing is for certain, it would not be just another Osirak. " [17]
Synopsis
Regardless of whatever choice the U.S. electorate makes in the upcoming Presidential Election a military expedition may still go ahead.
This essay was written out of my own patriotic duty in an effort to inform Americans of the challenges that lie ahead. On November 25, 2004, the issues involving Iran's nuclear program will be addressed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and possibly referred to the U.N. Security Council if the results are unsatisfactory. Regardless of the IAEA findings, it appears increasingly likely the U.S. will use the specter of nuclear weapon proliferation as a pretext for an intervention, similar to the fears invoked in the previous WMD campaign regarding Iraq.
Pentagon sources confirm the Bush administration could undertake a desperate military strategy to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions while simultaneously attempting to prevent the Iranian oil Bourse from initiating a euro-based system for oil trades. The later would require forced "regime change" and the U.S. occupation of Iran. Obviously this would require a military draft. Objectively speaking, the post-war debacle in Iraq has clearly shown that such Imperial policies will be a catastrophic failure. Alternatively, perhaps a more enlightened U.S. administration could undertake multilateral negotiations with the EU and OPEC regarding a dual oil-currency system, in conjunction with global monetary reform. Either way, U.S. policy makers will soon face two difficult choices: monetary compromise or continued petrodollar warfare.
Larry Elliott, economics editor Wednesday October 17, 2007 Guardian Unlimited (Buisness)
The changing balance of power in the world economy has seen China replace a faltering United States as the biggest contributor to global growth in an "uncertain and potentially difficult period", the International Monetary Fund said today.
Unveiling its half-yearly forecasts, the Fund said the world was increasingly dependent on the strong performance of the three leading developing countries - China, India and Russia - at a time when the west was struggling to cope with financial market turmoil.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook said that growth rates of more than 11% in China, 9% in India and almost 8% in Russia meant the three nations "alone accounted for one half of global growth over the past year".
Rapid growth in emerging economies helped offset the sluggish performance of the United States, Japan and the euro area, the Fund said. It stressed, however, that the leading developing countries faced challenges of their own, noting that there were concerns about over-investment in China and rising inflation in India.
Forecasting a further 5% fall in US house prices over the next year, the IMF sharply cut its forecast for American growth next year to 1.9% - 0.9 points lower than it had pencilled in at the time of the last WEO in April.
The Fund added that the impact of the housing market crash and associated credit crunch was so serious that the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, would need to cut interest rates by a further 0.5 percentage points by the end of this year in order to meet the lower growth forecast. A steeper fall in US house prices was possible, the WEO said.
"Growth in the US is expected to remain subdued. Problems in the housing sector are more intense than previously expected and the disruption of credit is likely to have further impact", said Simon Johnson, the IMF's economic counsellor and director of research.
"We expect some slowing in Japan, where the second quarter was disappointing, and in Europe, where banks were involved to a surprising degree with instruments and vehicles exposed to the US sub-prime sector."
Despite the strong performance of the developing world, the IMF said it now expected the global economy to grow by 4.8% next year - a 0.4 point reduction on its spring forecast. "Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centred around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown."
In its baseline forecast for the global economy, the IMF said there would be a temporary shock lasting for two quarters, but it warned that "the interaction between a deterioration in financial conditions with other vulnerabilities in advanced and emerging market economies could lead to a deeper and more prolonged slowdown in global activity than envisaged."
An additional 10% fall in US house prices, a 10% drop in equity prices and a further 50-point widening in credit spreads would lead to a deep two-year downturn in which the US economy would experience negative growth.
The Fund said the forecasts in the WEO were based on the assumption that financial markets gradually returned to normal over the coming months.
"Nonetheless", it added, "there remains a distinct possibility that turbulent financial market conditions could continue for some time. An extended period of tight credit conditions could have a significant dampening impact on growth, particularly through the effect on housing markets in the US and some European countries."
Its economists believe, however, that there is a one-in-six chance of global growth slowing to 3.5% in 2008, with great uncertainty caused by the gyrations in financial markets since August. The correction was more pronounced because liquidity dried up in a market left in the dark about the extent and distribution of losses from sub-prime backed securities.
The Fund said additional threats to the world economy came from rising oil prices and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. With oil prices already close to $90 a barrel, the Fund said a further spike in the cost of crude could not be ruled out. Strong demand, limited spare production capacity and an ever-present terrorist threat explained the quadrupling of prices in the past four years, the Fund added.
In terms of policies, the Fund said fresh cuts in interest rates in the US were justified by the housing crisis, and that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England had been right to put increases in the cost of borrowing on hold during the period of financial turmoil.
China could help to ease problems caused by global imbalances - massive current account surpluses in Asia matched by current account deficits in the US - by allowing its currency to appreciate.
The Fund warned that slower growth was likely to intensify protectionist pressures in the West and expressed "deep disappointment" at the lack of progress in the World Trade Organisation's Doha round of liberalisation talks. It called on "major countries" to demonstrate leadership to re-energise the negotiations currently going on in Geneva in an attempt to secure a deal before the start of the US presidential election race early next year.
, Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. However, since the spring of 2003, Iran has required payments in the euro currency for its European and Asian/ACU exports - although the oil pricing for trades are still denominated in the dollar. [4]
